Reforecasting Two Heavy-Precipitation Events with Three Convection-Permitting Ensembles

A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Near-Convection- Permitting and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles

Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events

An assessment of the performance of different convection-permitting ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) is performed, with a focus on Heavy Precipitating Events (HPEs). The convective-scale EPS configuration includes perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) by using a global ensemble to provide LBCs, initial conditions (ICs) through an ensemble data assimilation technique and perturba...

Precipitation over urban areas in the western Maritime Continent using a convection-permitting model

contrasts stronger, which enhances sea breeze circulations. Together, they increase near-surface moisture flux convergence and favour convective processes leading to an overall increase of precipitation over urban areas. The diurnal cycle of these effects is reflected in the atmospheric footprint of cities on variables such as humidity and cloud mixing ratio and accompanies changes in precipita...

GEWEX Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop

On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation-based ensembles

Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is uncertain. How important is this uncertainty and how can it be considered in evaluation of high-resolution probabilistic precipitation forecasts? These questions are discussed by experimental evaluation of the COSMO consortium’s limitedarea ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS. The applied performance measure is the often used Brier skill score (B...